Robust Dynamics and Control of a Partially Observed Markov Chain

In a seminal paper, Martin Clark (Communications Systems and Random Process Theory, Darlington, 1977, pp. 721–734, 1978) showed how the filtered dynamics giving the optimal estimate of a Markov chain observed in Gaussian noise can be expressed using an ordinary differential equation. These results offer substantial benefits in filtering and in control, often simplifying the analysis and an in some settings providing numerical benefits, see, for example Malcolm et al. (J. Appl. Math. Stoch. Anal., 2007, to appear). Clark’s method uses a gauge transformation and, in effect, solves the Wonham-Zakai equation using variation of constants. In this article, we consider the optimal control of a partially observed Markov chain. This problem is discussed in Elliott et al. (Hidden Markov Models Estimation and Control, Applications of Mathematics Series, vol. 29, 1995). The innovation in our results is that the robust dynamics of Clark are used to compute forward in time dynamics for a simplified adjoint process. A stochastic minimum principle is established.     

含语言评价信息的一种模糊多属性群决策方法

对于多属性群决策问题的处理,有时需要采用先决策、后综合的处理方法,而含有语言评价信息的多属性群决策问题,定性目标一般用语言评价信息描述,由决策人给出定性目标和权系数的语言变量评价,用梯形模糊数表示,对定量目标进行无量纲化处理;将决策人对于单一目标的评价指标聚合成多个目标的评价模糊数,采用Bass-Kw akernaak模糊数排序方法对方案进行排序;群体的评价通过Borda函数来集结方案集的群体排序.     

带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型的不破产概率

本文讨论了带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型,通过构造一个延迟更新过程,我们得到了不破产概率满足的积分-微分方程,进而得到了不破产概率的明确表达式．     

单调和Fuzzy单调变分不等式的补偿方法

在实自反Banach空间,用补偿方法研究单调和Fuzzy单调广义非线性变分不等式,得到了几个解的存在性定理.改进和推广了Browder,Pascali-Sburlan,Zhang等人的各种结果.     

Two-sided bounds for the distribution of the deficit at ruin in the renewal risk model

We obtain lower and upper bounds for the severity of ruin in the renewal (Sparre Andersen) model of risk theory. We present two types of bounds: (i) bounds applicable generally; and (ii) exponential bounds for the case where the adjustment coefficient of the risk process exists. Many of these bounds are obtained using existing bounds and the integral equation for the severity of ruin.     

Lower bounds for transition probabilities on graphs

The paper presents two results. The first one provides separate conditions for the upper and lower estimates of the distribution of the time of exit from balls of a random walk on a weighted graph. The main result of the paper is that the lower estimate follows from the elliptic Harnack inequality. The second result is an off-diagonal lower bound for the transition probability of the random walk.     

煤矿瓦斯和煤尘监控的数学模型

结合2006年全国大学生数学建模竟赛D题,借助Matlab软件,通过数学建模,计算出有关煤矿瓦斯和煤尘的3个主要安全指标,从而为解决煤矿实际安全生产提供了参考.     

一个新的最优模糊存储模型

提出一个新的具有积压定单的关于模糊订购量的模糊存储模型.在模糊函数原理下,给出了模糊总存储成本.为了寻找最优解,把最优模糊存储模型转化为双目标最优化模型,利用L ingo8.0求解不等式约束问题,我们发现最优解都是确定的实数.此外,当模糊订购量和模糊总需求都是三角形(或权重均为1/2梯形)模糊数时,我们提出模型的最优解与经典的具有积压定单存储模型具有相同的结果.